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Between the proven and the unknown: the labor party chooses the leader

Monday, July 10, held the second round of voting on elections of the head of the party «Avoda». Voting will begin at 11:00 am at more than 80 polling stations in various parts of the country. Have the right to vote 52.505 party members who can vote at any polling station outside the place of residence.

Polling stations closed at 21:00, the press service of the party «Avoda» I believe that the results will be known no later than 21:45. Shortly after that, the winner will perform at the party headquarters in the hall of the Ocean in tel Aviv.

Recall that the second round went Knesset member Amir Peretz, and former Minister of environment of AVI Gabay.

Review political correspondent NEWSru.co.il Gabby Wolfson

For six days elapsed between the first and second round of voting, candidates actively tried to enlist the support of influential figures in the party and around it. Largely succeeded Amir Peretz, who was supported by his rivals in the first round of voting and Erel Margalit, Isaac Herzog. On the side Peretz got the head of the Israeli national trade Union Federation «the Histadrut» AVI Nissenkorn and the Chairman of the Jewish national Fund (KKL) Dani Atar.

Co-chair of the «Zionist camp» of Livni did not do official statements, however in its environment does not hide the fact that she supports Amir Peretz. According to some reports, Pepper received the support of the Showers, promising to save the format of the «Zionist camp» before the next election to the Knesset.

AVI GABA, in turn, support Shelly yachimovich, Ehud Barak, kibbutz movement and a member of the Knesset, Zohir Bahalul. The latter seems particularly important because the Arab sector in the party «Avoda» have considerable influence. At the same time, it is unknown how authoritative this environment has become Balul less than two and a half years of membership in the Knesset.

Support from MPs and influential functionaries will have only a partial influence on the outcome of the elections, because not all voters are ready to follow the recommendations. Surrounded by Isaac Herzog saying that many of his supporters will vote for AVI GABA as a personal dislike for pereza stronger.

Two directly related factors will have a drastic impact on the outcome of the elections. First: the organization of the election day. When we are talking about 50.000 of the electorate, of which the number of voters is unlikely to exceed 30.000, which means to win you need «only» 15.000 votes, the ability to deliver «their» people to the polls depends on extreme a lot.

In this respect to compete with the former Union boss, and besides relying on the support of the current leader of the «Histadrut», the occupation is almost hopeless. In order to minimize the effect of organized vote — just have to hope for active voting, so-called free voters who do not belong to one of the many camps in the «Avoda». The higher the percentage of the vote, the higher the chances of AVI Gaby to present another sensation.

The last time the head of the Israeli labour party was chosen in two rounds in 2011. The post then claimed Shelly yachimovich and the same Amir Peretz. Yahimovich six years ago won the confidence of 54:46. In 2011 in the second round of voting was attended by 61% of voters. To Gabay received the odds of winning, the number of voters must exceed 60%. Considering the hot weather, the challenge Gabaim, very difficult.

The second factor is psychological. Members of the labor party have to choose between a familiar and «trusted» Pericom and new, totally unknown Gabaim. In the last 20 years members of the labor party repeatedly facing the same choice and almost every time chose the unknown. So in 2002, Amram Mitzna, won Ben Eliezer, in 2005, Amir Peretz defeated Shimon Peres, and in 2011, as mentioned, lost Shelly yachimovich, who in turn two years later gave the throne has not yet disappointed by the time Yitzhak Herzog.

Will the members of the labor party again to experiment, as in the case of Ehud Barak in 2007, or would you prefer to risk again? Now it is obvious that the chances of Peretz to victory. But don’t ahead of time to ignore GABA. Before the elections to the Knesset of the 20th convocation on the primaries first place was taken by Shelly yachimovich. Second – Stav Shafir. Today both of them support AVI GABA.

Polls published in the week between the first and second circle, confirm the obvious: no Pepper, no — will not turn immediately after the election in princes on white horses who will rush to the gates of the Prime Minister’s office. Moreover, the voters, apparently, not too distinguished from one another, both giving approximately the same number of mandates.

But it is incorrect to assess the impact of the elections in the «Labor party» only on the question of whether the elected leader candidate for the post of Prime Minister. The answer to this question is obvious, and it is negative. The polls say also that the smaller rise «labor» not to deprive the peaceful sleep of the heads of the current coalition.

Only poll, published by Walla, suggests that if elections were held immediately after the primaries in the «Labor party», the party forming the current coalition, would win only 61 seats instead of 65.

According to surveys of the Second channel and the newspaper «Maariv a-Shavua» elections in the «Labor» does not affect the position of the blocks, and the national camp continues to lead.

The main victims of a leadership change in the «Labor» becomes Yair Lapid. In the Likud look on what is happening in the «Labor party», and most likely, as the late Menachem begin during the war of Iran with Iraq, I wish success to both sides. The government of national unity to form will fail no Parezom or Gabaim, and the long-term effect of this election in the «Labor» will become clear only with time.

However, recall that the election of Duke in November 2013 is also treated as a minor curiosity. However, him in the elections lacked quite a bit in order to become head of government.

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Between the proven and the unknown: the labor party chooses the leader 10.07.2017

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