Ilya Arkhipov and Henry Meyer
«It turned out that U.S. President Barack Obama, who is criticized at home for his strategy to combat «Islamic state», was right when he predicted that the campaign of Vladimir Putin in Syria — the path into the bog, — journalists write Ilya Arkhipov and Henry Meyer in BloombergBusiness. When Putin joined in the Syrian civil war September 30, 2015, many high-ranking Moscow officials have underestimated how long is the operation to support Assad. Now they’re not talking about a few months, and one of them expressed the hope that it would not last several years.»
«Fuck the third month of the mission, and puts Putin in Syria with logistical and human resources at a pace which is not expected lawmakers, already struggling to comply with its requests for costs,» the authors note. Oil prices are falling and pulling the income of Russia, prolonging for the first six years of recession. «This week the defense Ministry had to delay several new weapons programs,» the article says.
«The operation will last at least a year, said Franz Klintsevich, Deputy Chairman of the defense Committee in the upper house of Parliament. — I expected more from the Syrian army».
Citing «knowledgeable officials», the authors write that originally, Russia planned to spend on this war 1.2 billion dollars for the entire year of 2016. According to the Royal United services Institute for defence studies (RUSI, London), after the mass sending of soldiers and equipment in mid-November, the daily cost increased from 4 to 8 million dollars a day, which in terms of a year amounts to almost 3 billion.
«Putin will have to involve more and more ground forces, increasingly putting them under attack and increasing the likelihood of a prolonged mission, says analyst jörg Forbrig (German Marshall Fund of the U.S.). One year is completely unrealistic».
Referring to the researcher Igor Sutyagin, RUSI, the authors reported that in Syria right now — 5 thousand Russian military, and this is more than twice the original projections on putting 2 thousand «Although Putin still excludes a ground offensive, said Sutyagin, hundreds of advisers already attached to the Syrian army».
«No one in the Russian leadership did not underestimate the difficulty of the task, according to Andrei Klimov, the Deputy Chairman of the international Affairs Committee of the upper house of Parliament,» the article says.
«The threat we are fighting, is from 45 to 50 thousand experienced fighters, including from Chechnya and Afghanistan, and officers of the Syrian army, which we trained, — said Klimov. This is a very serious opponent.»