On Monday evening, February 1, in the U.S. state of Iowa will take place on the so-called «Caucus meetings» (Iowa Caucus) which will initiate the presidential primaries in the United States. According to forecasters, by the evening of 1 February in most cities of the state will be subzero temperature and Blizzard.
Bad weather, which may prevent many voters to come to the places of holding Caucuses, plays into the hands of Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton, because Cruz provided the voices of Evangelical Christians, traditionally the majority of participants in the Caucuses in Iowa and Clinton is a favorite of moderate Democrats in the state.
Note that if weather forecasters are wrong or even if Blizzard will not keep the house more radical voters of both parties, a win in Iowa could lead to candidates not belonging to the party establishment in both parties, Donald trump and Barney Sanders.
If traditional primaries represent ordinary voting at polling stations, «the Caucuses», the title of which is taken from the language of the Indians of the Algonquin tribe and means the Assembly of elders, most similar to the contests of debate. The Caucus meetings typically occur on the premises of schools and churches, in small towns and even in the homes of private persons. From each party in the Iowa Caucuses is 99, the number of districts in the state. At Caucus meetings the representatives of each candidate in a few hours make campaign speeches, and at the end of the debate, the Republicans write the name of their candidate on a piece of paper and throw it in a makeshift ballot box, while Democrats are divided into groups of supporters of each candidate and choose the favorite, considering the number of people in each group.
Despite the fact that the population of Iowa is only three million people and cannot be considered as representative because the state is predominantly white population, the Caucuses in Iowa are vital in the presidential primaries in the United States and often set the tone for the rest of the campaign.
It has a couple of reasons. First, since 1972 the Caucuses in Iowa are the first intra-party elections for the post of the candidate in presidents of the United States, and therefore very widely covered in the press. Secondly, with regard to candidates from the Republican party, given the very strong lobby of Evangelical Christians in some other, predominantly southern States countries, in particular in such as Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and North and South Carolina, the votes of the Republicans, as a rule, the candidate who won the elections among Evangelical Christians in Iowa.
Note that since 1972, the presidential candidate of the Republican party in 50% of cases was the candidate who won the election in Iowa. The candidate of the Democratic party became the winner of the Caucuses in Iowa in 43% of cases.
The last poll taken before the Caucuses in Iowa, has shown that Donald trump is still a favorite among Republicans, but the gap between him and Ted Cruz is just 5 points. Marco Rubio lags behind Cruz by 8 points. The Democrats have Hillary Clinton ahead of Barney Sanders just 3 points.
American media noted that the establishment of the Republican party before intra-party elections is still trying to prevent the victory of Donald trump. Most donors support Republican Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. In this case, the financiers of wall Street believe Rubio is the only candidate capable of bypassing at the election of Hillary Clinton, if she becomes the democratic candidate, and Ted Cruz, backed by «tea party» (Tea Party movement) has the support of more conservative donors, which, interestingly, includes not only libertarians, evangelicals, anti-abortion activists and supporters carrying weapons, but also members of the Pro-Israel lobby.
According to many analysts, the Republican party elections in Iowa are much more important than Democratic. It is believed that if trump will get around to Iowa for Cruz, the latter will be extremely difficult to catch up with his opponent. In the reverse situation, if trump will concede to Cruz in the state, it does not have a significant impact on future campaigns billionaire.