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Primaries in the «Labor»: candidates and prospects

On Tuesday, July 4, at 11:00 across the country will open 80 polling stations and almost 52.000 members of the party «Avoda» will get the opportunity again – for the fourth time in the last ten years – to elect the leader of his party.

Date of the primaries was announced in March, and the current election race has become one of the longest in the history of intra-party elections. During these months, each candidate tried to convince his party comrades that he is capable of leading the party from that critical situation in which she found herself, to stop the process of free fall in the polls and the withdrawal of mandates to the party «Yesh Atid».

Initially on a post of the head of the Israeli labour party ran nine candidates: the acting head of the party, Isaac Herzog, members of Amir Peretz, Omer Bar-Lev, Erel Margalit, a former Minister of environment of AVI Gabay, as well as Professor Avner Ben Zaken, the General-the major stock amiram Levine, Deena Diane and Stroke Karoubi.

Two weeks before the primaries Amiram Levin withdrew his candidacy and announced his support AVI Gabaa, and in less than a day before the opening of polling stations on the exit from the race was announced by Dean Diane. She called on her supporters to vote for Isaac Herzog.

Among the remaining contenders, the most likely candidates to win are considered to be three: Isaac Herzog, Amir Peretz and AVI Gabay. In the party talking about sensation, which can give Erel Margalit, however, all polls leave him far outside of the top three.

The chance that someone from candidates will succeed in the first round and to gain 40% of the votes needed to win, is considered to be extremely low. Barring anything unexpected, in a week there will be a second round, which will see two candidates with the highest number of votes. It is impossible to predict who it will be, but the consequences of the election of each of the three most likely candidates to be the winners, you can appreciate now.

Review political correspondent Gabby Wolfson

Win Isaac Herzog likely will lead to the resumption of negotiations on the establishment of a national unity government. In these negotiations, interested, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, tired of the incessant squabbles between partners that are included in the current coalition. And in the eyes of the world public opinion trying to introduce a government of «moderate» to the Duke, who should be there instead of «extremist» Bennett, can have a positive effect. This does not mean that Netanyahu will rush to change the composition of the coalition. To take such a step the Prime Minister will not be easy for many reasons. But the talks will resume, and it is in the interests not only of Netanyahu, but of the Duke himself.

The number of errors made by the leader of the «Zionist camp» after the elections in 2015, made him a figure which very few people perceived as the alternative government. What if the speech uttered Isaac Herzog, his words dissolve in the air, almost without leaving a trace, and silent type lately Yair Lapid continues to collect the mandates of the labor party.

Conversations about Duke’s intention to create a center-left bloc and to hold open primaries are also not unfounded. Yair Lapid has already stated that any center-left bloc he does not intend to join. The leader of the «Yesh Atid», which is already more than two years doing everything to him, no one could be called left, not to sit in a carriage with meirav Michaeli, Yossi and By Shelly yachimovich.

Isaac Herzog will have to rely only on bloc with Livni. In this situation the post of foreign Minister in the government that would resume talks with the Palestinian authority and slow down the pace of construction in Judea and Samaria, can be for the Duke, the only opportunity to come to the elections to the Knesset of 21st convocation with some achievements. At least virtually. Most likely, it will not make «Labor» a real alternative of power, however, Isaac Herzog has presented many surprises. If he can break a long tradition of the party «Avoda» to change leaders every two or three years, it is not excluded that he will be able to challenge its main rival Yair Lapid.

Victory in the primaries AVI GABA will have the opposite effect. A recent Minister of environment will lead the party noticeably to the left, as politically and economically. GABA supports the former head of the party and a failed President «Histadrut» Shelly yachimovich that speaks for itself. Victory GABA completely displays the «Avoda» of the number of contenders for power and turn it into a «niche» ideological party based on the unions and radical left-wing politically circles.

Demonstrative leftism in Israel to 2017 is not honored, and such party will not take any mandate from «Yesh Atid», not to mention the Likud. Cadence GABA is likely to be short-lived.

The greatest support among MPs to voice their preferences, is Amir Peretz. About the support in the past already led to «Labor» policy and said those who are not all expected to see in the Peretz camp: Itzik Shmuel, Nachman Shai and former Secretary General of the labor party Hilik Bar. The reason support for the Pepper is not only in the natural desire to put on the right horse, but also in the evaluation of prospects. In the past, Pepper has already proven the ability to attract to vote for «Labor» voters on the periphery, which, as a rule, did not favor his attention to the ballot with the letters of אמת. In the 2006 elections «Avoda» under the leadership of Peretz gained 19 mandates, without entering into alliances with anyone but almost virtual «Mamada».

Activities Peretz as Minister of defense also received over time, several different assessment than in hot pursuit, and the project of the «Iron dome» is considered his greatest personal achievement.

Based on this, Pepper in case of victory will begin a gradual formation of the labor party as a real opposition force (experienced Union tribune no one will have to learn the finer points of opposition activities).

Another trump card Peretz is a close friendship with the former chief of the General staff of the IDF Lieutenant-General of a stock Gabi Ashkenazi. On the eve of the elections will worsen the struggle between wanting to see a popular General, and even of Eastern origin, in its list. This fight from Amir Peretz, a good chance for success.

The Peretz victory in the primaries will end the existence of the «Zionist camp», or more simply Union between «Water» and the party «tnua». Tzipi Livni will not find place in the new «Labor party».

In case of victory AVI Gabaa Alliance with the «tnua» also very quickly completed.

In the next few days, Tzipi Livni, will all your soul wish to win Yitzchak Herzog. Its success depends largely on its political future.

The worst thing for a political leader or movement is to be uninteresting. In recent years, this is what happened with the party «Avoda». And the problem before other have to solve a new or current leader of the Israeli Labor party.

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Primaries in the «Labor»: candidates and prospects 04.07.2017

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